Predictions for the Republican Contest

More so than in recent years, I’ve been following the current presidential race quite closely. For one thing, if you watch or read the news regularly it’s as unavoidable as Britney Spears. I guess with no “heir to the throne” it becomes a bigger circus and thus more entertaining.

For a while now I’ve been in support of Mike Huckabee and still plan to vote for him in the upcoming Texas primary. I will admit that I do like McCain and have lost a great deal of respect for Romney. However, any of these candidates I would prefer over Barack or Hillary. (I would prefer the prior over the latter in this case).

So what’s the break-down? With Giuliani, Thompson, and Edwards gone, it’s:

Huckabee>>McCain>>Romney>>Obama>>Paul>>Clinton

I’ve been following the Huckabee camp for a while and think that he has done fairly well, although I do believe he has “overplayed his hand” quite a few times. But things are looking a little dire for the second man from Hope. After Florida he has dropped to third in the delegate count and, unless he makes major moves in some of the upcoming states, he’s unlikely to get the nod.

I crunched some numbers, taking the number of delegates left, the number of delegates won, the polls in the various states, and considered whether a state was winner-take-all (which honestly I don’t think any of them should be, but that’s another question for a later date). Here’s the outcome:

McCain = 765 delegates
Huckabee = 432 delegates
Romney = 320 delegates

That’s where we would stand if every primary was held today and if the polls were all correct. What’s interesting is that to become the nominee, a candidate needs 1191 delegates in the Republican primary (I believe). If this is the case, who would be selected? I don’t see any of these three candidates bowing out early.

So in comes my prediction. Based on the obvious bad blood between Huckabee and Romney (remember Iowa?) and McCain and Romney (remember Florida?) I can only come to one conclusion. A McCain-Huckabee ticket. For a VP slot, Huckabee throws in his delegates with McCain, giving him 1197…enough for the nomination. I do not see Romney on a ticket with McCain or Huckabee.

I’ve been predicting a McCain-Huckabee ticket for about a month now, and still believe that with the current candidates, this is the best chance of success for the Republican party. I would certainly vote for this ticket over almost any other combination currently in the race, Democratic or Republican.

The biggest assumption I made was that Huckabee will succeed in the winner-take-all Missouri contest. If he does not, and McCain wins, there would be little change to my prediction. If Huckabee loses that contest and instead Romney wins, it’s a completely different ball game.

So we’ll have to wait and see how it turns out!